Is Joe Flacco About to Become Joe Johnson?

Joe Flacco’s tenure with the Ravens is going to end just like Joe Johnson’s: with him getting cut so that his team has a chance of becoming a contender.

Allow me to explain.

I’ve had this post sitting in my drafts since February 7, but I talked myself out of finishing it because of three things:

1) I’ve been on my hustle like crazy. This blog is fun but it’s not paying the rent.

2) All of my free time was spent watching this video (I’m up to about 50 plays).

3) I eventually decided there was no way the Ravens would be dumb enough to make this hypothetical question a reality.

I was wrong about that last part.

Why even ask the question? What is it about Flacco that conjures up Johnson? It’s not just the similar dollar figures. In fact when I started this post nearly a month ago I had no idea Flacco’s contract would be almost identical to JJ’s (Flacco got six years/$120.6 million, JJ got six years/$119 million). It ended up being almost TOO perfect for this topic, but that’s not what this comparison is about. This comparison is about two things:

1) Nobody in his right mind could look at what either guy did on his old contract and think he deserved what he got in his new contract.

2) Both guys’ teams are (or, in the Hawks’ case, were) likely out of title contention until their guy’s contract is off the books.

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If You Don’t Want to See a Jordan Comeback, You’re Probably a Bad Person

“He sucked the last time he unretired.”

“He’s too old to play a full season.”

“He’ll tarnish his legacy.”

“I don’t want my memories ruined.”

“Nobody wants to see a 50-year-old play basketball.”

Michael Jordan turned 50 this past Sunday. That alone was reason enough for every major American sports media outlet to roll out a week of nonstop MJ coverage. As a child of the 90s and a huge Michael Jordan homer, I’d argue MJ turning 50 was reason enough to declare this entire week a national holiday, so we could all celebrate all the joy he has brought to our lives, and perhaps also so we could drink ourselves to sleep every night to help us try to forget how old we’re all getting. But that’s neither here nor there.

The coverage has been incredibly comprehensive, as expected, and overwhelmingly positive, also as expected. But there’s one particular subject that I didn’t really think would get as much scrutiny and attention as it has. Three years ago, during the most memorable, if not the most important, pro sports Hall of Fame induction speech ever given (NBA.com), MJ casually dropped the following:

One day you might look up and see me playing a game at 50. Don’t laugh. Never say never, because limits, like fears, are often just an illusion.

Justin Bieber, pay the man his royalties.

On the subject of another Michael Jordan comeback, it seems that most “respected” “journalists” went cafeteria style and chose some formulation of the five quotes at the top of this post. A lil’ bit of Too Old with a side of He Sucked Ten Years Ago, please! How much for some extra Legacy Tarnish? Oh it’s free? Yeah gimme summa that too. It’s not just the journalists, though. Their opinions have been shared (or parroted, if you’re cynical like me) by many others: casual basketball fans, die-hard basketball fans, bloggers, message board posters, current coaches, former coaches, sports radio hosts. There’s about a 50-50 split for and against another comeback, although I will say that the anti-comeback crowd is perhaps slightly bigger (or at least more vocal) than the pro-comeback crowd.

To all of you in the anti-comeback crowd, I say: Shut up. You’re dumb.

When I first decided to write this post I was going to title it, “If You Don’t Want to See a Jordan Comeback, You Must Hate Basketball.” But that wasn’t forceful enough. It was too limiting to capture how I felt on the subject of a possible Jordan comeback because I think that subject goes beyond basketball. Granted, I may have overcorrected with the title I went with, but that’s how I roll. All or nothing. If you ain’t first you’re last. Or something.

Anyway.

At its heart this is a debate over whether MJ would be successful enough during a fourth stint in the NBA to make it worth his while. In my opinion, though, the question is pointless and the answer is a no brainer. In fact, I think that if you don’t want to see a comeback attempt, it has as much to with your own selfishness, your own fears, or your own lack of imagination, as it has to do with a hypothetical stat line.

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When are We Going to Stop Pretending Jay Williams was Going to be an NBA Star?

One of these Jason Williamses had a pretty decent career.

Nearly ten years after the motorcycle accident that cut his NBA career short, Jay Williams was profiled in a very interesting story in the New York Times. He talks in illuminating detail about the things he went through after that accident. Depression, incessant mocking from NBA fans, even suicide attempts.

In the past few years he’s reinvented himself as a college basketball broadcaster, and he’s really started climbing the ESPN totem pole. I can only assume that’s why the Times article was even written. And good for him. He’s a genuinely entertaining television personality. He’s usually very honest about himself and about the teams he covers. He doesn’t give you a lot of talking head clichés, or at the very least he’s not on Dick Vitale’s level.

Okay, so now that we’ve gotten the pleasantries out of the way…

I’m a well-known and admitted Duke hater. Jay Williams is somewhere near the very top of my list of Most Hated Dukies (he probably falls between JJ Redick and Kyle Singler– I should really write this list out). But really people, REALLY: when are we going to stop pretending Jay Williams was going to be an NBA star??

The accident was tragic. Some people probably think, “Good, you dummy, you get what you deserve. Way to throw away a winning lottery ticket.” And there’s some truth to that. But no matter how much I hate Duke, I just cannot wish that kind of ill upon someone, and I cannot take joy in his misery. That’s not what this post is about.

I’m not just talking about Jay’s legendarily bad free throw shooting. What this post is about is how we are ret-conning the shit out of his legacy. Does anybody actually REMEMBER Jay Williams’s time in the NBA? I mean did you actually see him play? Do you remember the storylines surrounding the Bulls? Or are you like a majority of basketball fans who like to romanticize his story and talk about stuff you don’t actually know?

He didn’t play for an eternity, but the man played in 75 games. That’s a pretty fucking good sample size. In fact, that’s only 33 games less than he played in his entire time at Duke. So how about we stop judging Jay Williams’s NBA legacy by what he did in college and start judging his NBA legacy by what he did in the NBA?

I want to be clear that this is a mostly objective analysis, so to be as objective as possible, LET’S GO TO THE TAPE:

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Revisiting the Kyle Korver-Joe Johnson Comparison

Back in November I did a blind comparison of two unnamed shooting guards through 12 games. Those shooting guards were Kyle Korver and Joe Johnson. Mr. Ashton Kutcher was statistically superior to JJ in almost every possible way. However, with only 12 games worth of data to use, it’d be very easy to argue that the whole thing was statistically irrelevant.

Well, we’re more than halfway through the season. How about we do the same comparison again?

Once again we’re normalizing per 36 for the basic metrics plus throwing in some advance metrics for good measure.

Shooting Guard #1

Points: 16.2
Field goal shooting: 6.1 for 14.3 (.425)
Three point shooting: 2.0 for 5.3 (.380)
Free throw shooting: 2.1 for 2.5 (.820)
A/T ratio: 3.4 to 1.6 (2.13:1)
Rebounding: 0.7 O, 2.2 D (2.8 Tot)
PER: 14.6
TS%: .526
eFG%: .495
Rebounding rate: 2.2 O, 7.3 D (4.7 Tot)
O rating: 109
D rating: 111
Win share/48: .093

Shooting Guard #2

Points: 13.5
Field goal shooting: 4.5 for 9.7 (.468)
Three point shooting: 3.3 for 7.1 (.471)
Free throw shooting: 1.1 for 1.3 (.826)
A/T ratio: 2.1 to 1.0 (2.1:1)
Rebounding: 0.4 O, 4.3 D (4.7 Tot)
PER: 15.0
TS%: .658
eFG%: .640
Rebounding rate: 1.3 O, 13.8 D (7.6 Tot)
O rating: 123
D rating: 105
Win share/48: .159

This one is definitely not the easy call that the first comparison was. But… can you tell which one is Mr. Ashton Kutcher and which one is JJ? Not that this is rocket science (there’s probably at least two or three numbers that are dead giveaways) but some of you might still be surprised.

Anybody convinced these numbers mean anything? Is 40+ games enough data?

Gregg Williams Got a Job Before Lovie Smith (Or: Black Coaches? Ain’t Nobody Got Time For That!)

Gregg Williams is the one-legged bus boy to Lovie Smith’s Chris Rock:

None of you would change places with me. And I’m rich! That’s how good it is to be white. There’s a white, one-legged busboy in here right now that won’t change places with my black ass. He’s going, “No, man, l don’t wanna switch. l wanna ride this white thing out. See where it takes me.”

I used to think that was nothing more than a hilarious quote, a piece of hyperbole that Rock used to illustrate an opinion. But after seeing what the Titans just did, I’m no longer so sure it’s hyperbole.

In case the name doesn’t sound familiar, Gregg Williams is one of the central figures in the Bountygate scandal that wrecked the ‘Aints’ 2012 season. Not only was he accused of bringing an illegal bounty system with him to New Orleans, but he waited about 15 seconds before he started snitching on his own players. It wasn’t even three months ago that every sports commentator in America was saying Gregg Williams’s career in the NFL was over. Who would ever hire this guy to be their defensive coordinator when he was a known locker room snitch?

The commentators were right: no one wanted to hire him to be their defensive coordinator. Someone wanted to hire him to be their assistant head coach.

Williams is on his way to Nashville to claim his new position as assistant HC for the Tennessee Titans. Forget the fact that he’s a snitch who no player should trust. Forget the fact that, technically, he’s currently banned by the bleepin NFL. Nashville came a-callin, and Gregg Williams just backed into a promotion.

Not just a job. Not just a second chance. Not just a prestigious, highly-coveted role somewhere on the coaching staff of an NFL team.

A promotion!

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Austin Rivers is Statistically the Worst Player in NBA History

Austin Rivers was last seen scoring points a long fucking time ago.

I just stumbled across an interesting little post on RealGM from earlier this week. The original poster ran the player season finder on Basketball Reference (aka, The Best Sports Website Ever) with the following filters:

For single seasons
played in the NBA/BAA
in the regular season
from 1946-47 to 2012-13
requiring Games >= 40
Minutes Per Game >= 5
Field Goal Pct <= .34
3-Pt Field Goal Pct <= .32
sorted by descending Win Shares.

Translation: Give me a list of the worst-shooting players getting significant minutes since the inception of the NBA, and sort them by win share.

It’s a very narrow statistical list to be sure, but unless you find major flaw with making this comparison based on shooting percentages, or in ranking the players based on win share, I think this list is a pretty good one. Here’s a snippet of the results (if you prefer, you can see the full list for yourself on Basketball Reference):

Out of 66 years of basketball, 73 players made it through the filter. And of those 73, Austin Rivers ranks dead last. Dead low down dirty shame buck naked LAST.

If you think I’m taking joy in his misery, well, you’re right. I do so for a few reasons:

One: he played for Duke – nuff said.

Two: there is no POSSIBLE way this guy was ready to play in the NBA, and I was not shy in letting my opinion be heard on that particular matter. But when the damn Pelicans drafted him in the lottery, every Dukie I’ve ever met in my life laughed in my face. To quote Jay Bilas: I don’t like saying I told you so, I LOVE SAYING I TOLD YOU SO.

Three: I don’t hate the Pelicans the way I hate the ‘Aints, but I just can’t find it in me to have any good feelings about any teams from that city. Sorry.

The real crazy thing to me is just how many minutes this kid gets. Are the Pelicans so desperate that they HAVE to force this poor rook on the court for ~24 minutes per game? He could be good one day, but as of right now he’s unmitigated trash, and the only thing that’s going to remedy that is getting his ass OUT of the NBA and into a D-League uniform.

I Thought I Was Over It, But I Was Wrong

28-24.

On that final 4th down, I told Mrs. DatWerkk that if we ended up losing the game, I was going to need to go lie down in the dark for awhile. She understood. Once the hook-and-ladder attempt failed, and the clock ran down to zeros, I silently left the living room and walked to the bedroom. I shut the door, turned off the lights, and laid down face-first on the bed.

Thirty seconds later I was back up and in the living room.

I wasn’t going to let this be like the other times I was butthurt over a loss. Not like the time I avoided all ESPN properties for three months after Georgia Tech lost to UConn in the 2004 National Championship Game. Not like the time I swore off Georgia Tech football after Reggie Ball threw the ball away on 4th down against UGA. Not like the time I refused to talk to any of my friends for weeks after the Falcons got blown out in Super Bowl XXXIII.

Time and time again on this blog, I talked about the importance of teams giving their fans hope for the future. And despite the cataclysmic manner in which the Falcons lost to the 49ers this weekend, for the first time ever, I left the season feeling like I had reason to have hope for the Falcons.

Julio Jones.

Jacquizz Rodgers.

Chase Coffman.

Sean Weatherspoon. Robert McClain. Thomas DeCoud. William Moore.

Matt Ryan, Roddy White, hell, even Thomas Dimitroff. The list goes on and on.

Even if Tony Gonzales retires, even if Todd McClure calls it a career, even if I was right and losing that gamed doomed the Falcons to getting the “same old Falcons” treatment from the media and fans alike, I knew in that moment that the future is bright. I could let go of the loss. I even sent my best friend (a lifelong Niners fan) a congratulatory text message. I felt no emotion. I was over it.

Or so I thought.

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Is It Possible that Manti Te’o Comes Out of This Looking Bad Even If He Wasn’t In On It?

Everyone’s coming out of the woodwork to talk about Manti Te’o now. Here’s a juicy bit from an unnamed “former teammate” who claims Te’o was an attention whore, and everyone on the team knew it (espn.com):

In September, the grandmother of Te’o died, and it was widely reported that his girlfriend died hours later. Media outlets pounced on the story as Notre Dame began their march to the title game. After Deadspin.com broke the hoax story, however, multiple media reports have said that players thought that Te’o had only met Lennay Kekua once and that it wasn’t really accurate to call her his girlfriend. But as condolences poured in, Te’o “played along,” according to the teammate, who wished to remain anonymous.

The teammate portrayed the move as part of the All-American’s personality, telling ESPN that Te’o liked attention so much that he would sometimes point himself out to friends when he was on television.

Now obviously, since this is coming from an anonymous source you have to take it with a grain of salt. That being said, it sure feeds right into the “he did it for the publicity” line of thinking.

I find it interesting, though, that this could be true regardless of whether he was in on the hoax. Also interesting: this is a new angle that, if true, would tarnish his character even if he was indeed a victim and not a perpetrator. If this anonymous former teammate is telling the truth, then at the very least Te’o knowingly let the whole country grieve for him, knowing damn well he wasn’t in love with no damn Lennay Kekua. (Alleged) shame on you, Manti. (Alleged) shame!

There were more interesting tidbits from the ESPN.com article that I neither knew about nor even considered:

The revelation of the hoax has been far-reaching, a Notre Dame graduate who launched a campaign to raise money for a cancer research group in memory of Te’o's girlfriend says he is “shell-shocked” to learn the woman didn’t exist.

Dan Tudesco, a 2006 graduate who now works in public relations in New York, set up an online account at fundraising website indiegogo.com on Jan. 9 to solicit $5,000 for the Leukemia & Lymphoma Society Inc. The initial pitch said donations would go to the society in memory of Lennay Kekua and in honor of Te’o, “two individuals who have been an inspiration to us through an iconic season.”

It’s like some weird alternate universe where Rudy and Lance Armstrong morphed into one sinister, phony, narcissist.

I’m not saying that organizations that support medical research or victims of serious medical diseases are suddenly meaningless or worthless just because they were inspired by a lie. But it is kinda shitty when you base your entire charitable marketing efforts around the life and death of someone that was less real than Max Headroom.

Murray: “You can’t fake a tape! Pictures don’t lie!”

It’ll be interesting to see how many more “innocent bystander” stories like this one come out over the next several days. This just goes to show, for all you budding fraud perps out there, catfishing can mess with a whole lot more than the target.